TMG Pre-Election Findings
Elections are more than just Election Day, and TMG has been observing the entire process
for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election.
TMG’s main findings related to the pre-election period include:
1. The judiciary speedily resolved electoral petitions, but the spate of litigation over
Party Primaries is a worrying sign.
2. INEC’s decision to release the voter’s register to political parties in electronic
format was a very positive improvement. In the future, the voter’s register should
also be made available to civic organisations.
3. INEC should also publish the results of the election by polling unit.
4. An encouraging development was the holding of candidate debates as it served
as an opportunity to make the election more substantive and issue-based.
However, it did not appear that all 23 gubernatorial candidates engaged in
5. There were widespread allegations of the buying up of voter cards by politicians.
TMG Post-Election Findings
TMG wishes to state as regards the November 16, 2013 Anambra Governorship Polls, based
on reports from our citizen observers, which they sent in via coded text message using
mobile phones, that while many elements of the Election Day process were adequate, there
were serious shortcomings, including:
1. Late arrival of election materials at polling units – as of 7:30am, observers
reported that only 39% of polling units across the state had their election materials
and by 9am only 43% of polling units were able to open; When materials finally
arrived, at 58% of polling units observers reported two polling officials; at 38% of
polling units three or more polling officials were present; while at just 4% of polling
units there was only one polling official present.
2. The widespread late delivery of election materials delayed the start of
accreditation of voters across the state.
3. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and
vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28%
of polling units 50 or more people were accredited during voting.
4. No elections in five wards of Idemili North LGA – Abatete, Nkpor I, Nkpor II,
Obosi and Ogidi I. Observers at all 14 sampled polling stations in these wards
reported no election;
5. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation – at 19% of polling units,
between 6 and 25 people with voter’s cards were denied accreditation, for whatever
reason and could not vote; Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals
being allowed to accredit and vote after accreditation had closed) created the
possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of polling units, 50 or more people were
accredited during voting; and
6. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not
return to vote – at 31% of polling units, the number of accredited voters exceeded
the number of actual voters by more than 10%.
7. At 52% of polling units, observers reported four or more political party agents; at
39% of polling units, there were one to three political party agents present, while 9%
of polling units had no agents from any party present.
TMG as a member of the Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors (GNDEM), as well
as the West African of Election Observer Network (WAEON) conducts all of its citizen
observation efforts in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for Nonpartisan
Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organisations.”
TMG’s innovative Quick Count observation effort is intended to help promote credible
elections in Nigeria that are conducted in accordance with international and regional
standards as well as the laws of our country by providing real time independent nonpartisan
information on the conduct of Election Day processes – setup of polling units,
accreditation of voters, voting and counting.
The Quick Count methodology involves deploying trained and accredited citizen observers
in pairs to a representative random sample of polling units carefully selected by a trained
statistician. Because reports are received from a representative sample of polling units, the
findings can be extrapolated to all polling units (even those which TMG did not deploy
observers) based on long-established statistical principles. Thus, the findings from the Quick
Count hold for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra. The Quick Count methodology is the gold
standard in citizen observation.
TMG’s Quick Count also takes advantage of the latest developments in information and
communication technologies (ICTs). TMG has established a National Information Centre
(NIC) in Abuja with a sophisticated database and text messaging system. To ensure real time
information, TMG observers submit their reports via coded text messages using their
mobile phones. Reports are received directly into a database and processed.
Deployment of Observers
TMG deployed a total of 633 observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election. Of these,
33 were mobile supervisors who moved around the state and 600 were stationary assigned
to specific polling units. TMG stationary observers sent in more than 3,000 text messages
with over 20,000 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the Election Day
process. Stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of
300 polling units across all three senatorial districts and all 21 local government areas
(LGAs). To ensure the representativeness of the sample, it was stratified by senatorial
district and LGA. This means that the proportion of sampled polling units closely matches
the proportion of all polling units in each senatorial district and in each LGA. For example
Anambra North has 30.2% percent of all polling units (1,391 of 4,608) and 30.0% percent of
the sampled polling stations are in Anambra North (180 of 300). Appendix 1 provides a
detailed breakdown of the sampled polling stations by senatorial district and LGA.
TMG conducted two rounds of training workshops for LGA supervisors as well as 29 training
workshops for observers. All observers were accredited with INEC. On the morning of
Election Day, there were isolated incidents of TMG observers not being permitted to
observe, but all of these issues were ultimately resolved.
In response to the INEC decision to extend a second day of voting in Obosi ward in Idemili
North LGA, TMG deployed 28 citizen observers on Sunday to observe the process in the
initially sampled polling units. According to reports from TMG citizen observers on Saturday,
there were similar problems of no elections taking place in Abatete, Nkpor I, Nkpor II and
Ogidi I wards, which are also in Idemili North LGA, as well two polling units in Ogbaru LGA.
TMG as the premier citizen observer network in the country comprising over 400 civic
organizations has observed all elections since the end of military rule in 1998/99.
For the Anambra Gubernatorial Election TMG employed the advanced Quick Count
methodology, the gold standard for election observation, TMG’s citizen observers were
deployed to a representative random sample of 300 polling stations located across every
senatorial district and all 21 local government areas (LGAs). Thus, TMG observers were in
every corner of the state, from the capital Awka to the most remote riverine areas. On
Sunday as we have noted earlier, TMG redeployed 28 observers for the second day of
voting in Idemili North. Throughout the day TMG’s citizen observers sent their observation
reports via coded text message using mobile phones directly into a computer database
located at a National Information Centre (NIC) in Abuja. In total, they sent in more than
3,000 text messages containing more than 20,000 individual pieces of information about
Election Day processes, as well as the official results as announced by INEC official at polling
INEC Declaration on Anambra Election
While the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) should be acknowledged for
providing an opportunity for election to be conducted in Obosi Ward of Idemili North LGA
on Sunday, November 17, 2013, TMG wonders why the remaining Wards of Abatete, Nkpor
1, Nkpor II, and Ogidi 1 Wards, as well as two polling units in Ogbaru LGA which have similar
problems of no election were not taken into consideration. We must note that these
shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially since many
of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections.
TMG salutes INEC’s courage to accept responsibility for failure of their official, whom they
claimed was working for outside interest; and whom they say has been handed over to the
police for investigation. We challenge INEC, the Security Agencies and the Federal
Government to expose the outside interest. But that is however not enough; INEC must be
move beyond that; the identity of the alleged collaborators and those they are working with
must be exposed. Anambrarians and indeed the Nigerian people deserve to know this.
The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. As you are already aware, the election
has been declared inconclusive following the cancellation of the votes in some areas. That
cancellation according to INEC affected 113, 113 votes which also led to the inability of a
clear winner to emerge. For that reason a supplementary election is to be held in all the
said areas. As a result, TMG will continue to observe the unfolding process as INEC makes
public the arrangement for the supplementary elections. TMG calls on all the people of
Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of results. TMG will
continue to observe the process, and as appropriate issue additional statements and
reports. As part of the Quick Count, TMG will provide independent verification of the official
results as announced by INEC to enhance the transparency and accountability of the
TMG insists that for the 2015 elections to be credible INEC must work in partnership with
political parties, civic organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to
chronic problems plaguing our elections. To this end, TMG stands ready to work with INEC
and other partners to help ensure the 2015 Elections meet the expectations of the Nigerian
Comrade Zikirilluhi M. Ibrahim
For Enquiries, contact
Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko
TMG Media Centre